Urbanization: The world population is increasingly concentrated in large cities and urban areas. By 2030, urban areas including cities are expected to account for approximately 60 percent of the global population and a vast majority of global consumption. It is anticipated that pests will spread more easily in areas where buildings are more densely located, leading to accelerated spread rates and an overall increase in the prevalence of pests.
Globalization:Increased travel and trade of goods are other factors that can support the spread of pests, in addition to introducing novel pest types into new geographies. The flow of goods has increased by approximately 10 times since 1983 and travel has increased by approximately 1.5 times over the last 10 years. While a short-term halt is likely due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the globalization trend is expected to continue in the long term.
Economic growth:Continued economic growth is expected to increase the global middle class and lead to more consumers with disposable incomes and an increased demand for pest control services. Nearly 1.6 billion people are expected to join the middle/consuming class over the next ten-year period, which is the demography most likely to use pest control services. Approximately 90 percent of global consumption growth in 2015 to 2030 is anticipated to be driven by people living in cities, with approximately 30 percent of consumption growth originating from China and more than 50 percent from emerging markets in total. A rise of the middle class could serve as a substantial driver for both price increases and volume growth in the pest control market, with the majority of the growth originating in emerging markets.
Regulation and legislation: Implementation of stringent government regulations in developed regions, such as North America and Europe, towards increasing hygiene standards through increased inspection and documentation is expected to drive growth in the pest control market. Restrictions on the use of residential rodenticide and increased hygiene and sanitary standards can decrease the potential for customers to seek “do-it-yourself” solutions and instead redirect customers to qualified pest control providers. One example in the United States is the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES), included in the Clean Water Act published in 2015, requiring additional permits to apply biocides to standing water. Increased complexity from this transition towards a more regulated market is likely to place additional pressure on smaller local and regional pest control players and benefit larger and well-established players of greater scale.
Digitalization:Increasing expectations of product and service performance can lead to increased customer demand for digitally-enabled pest control services. The digitalization of the pest control industry through offering remote monitoring and service optimization is expected to improve efficiency and effectiveness, further driving market growth through additional value-add for customers. It is expected that the overall digitalization of the pest control industry will favor larger players with an established integrated digital offering.
Preventative pest control: The emergence of digitally-enabled pest control and integrated pest-management (IPM) services has eased the move towards preventative pest management. The ability for early, or immediate, elimination, and the potential to prevent the emergence of pests all together, which can be highly valuable for customers where the presence of pests brings high reputational and financial risk. This trend can also benefit the providers of pest control services as preventative pest control contracts are more likely to be recurring and valuable in nature than ad-hoc jobs in traditional, reactive pest control service.